Democrats forge ahead in Bay State leadership roles
Detailed survey results and analysis are available at www.uml.edu/polls.
Amid deep polarization, looming economic concerns and the retirement of a popular longtime governor, Democrats could sweep Massachusetts’ four constitutional seats in the 2022 midterm elections, according to the latest. findings of UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion.
“Maura Healey is about to break the curse that has plagued sitting attorneys general for more than half a century,” said associate professor of political science John Cluverius, director of polling research at the Center for Public Opinion. .
Attorney General Healey’s lead over former state Rep. Geoff Diehl stands at 59% to Diehl’s 32%, while libertarian Kevin Reed voted 3% in the gubernatorial race. Less than 0.5% of likely voters in Massachusetts say they support another candidate and 6% remained undecided two weeks before the midterms.
A June 2022 UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion poll reported a similar margin, though many other midsummer respondents said they were undecided.
Healey leads Diehl in all income, race, gender, education and age categories. Men prefer Healey 50% to 39% while women prefer Healey 66% to 26%.
The other Massachusetts Democrats also lead each of the three additional statewide races:
- Attorney General: Former Boston City Councilwoman Andrea Campbell leads with 55% to attorney Jay McMahon’s 28%. (16% undecided)
- Secretary of State: Democratic incumbent Bill Galvin holds 58% against 24% for activist Rayla Campbell and 3% for green/rainbow social worker Juan Sanchez. (15% undecided)
- State Auditor: In what was expected to be the tightest of statewide races, Diana DiZoglio leads safety pro Anthony Amore 44% to 29%. All the other candidates in the listenership race have less than 5% support. (19% undecided)
Previous elections this year paired running mates Kim Driscoll with Healey and Leah Cole Allen with Diehl as candidates for lieutenant governor and were therefore not questioned in the Center for Public Opinion’s latest findings.
Even though he’s about to retire and the Democrats could likely sweep the statewide midterm elections, Republican Gov. Charlie Baker remains popular among both parties. Uniting Bay Staters, he is more popular among Democrats (82%) than in his own party (57%).
Polarization unites Massachusetts residents as ‘Tax-achusetts’ moniker lives on
“Thanksgiving can be tough this year as families come together after two years of pandemic restrictions over dinner to squabble when the conversation turns to dessert midterms,” said Cluverius of the noted division among Bay Staters. in the latest poll results.
When it comes to the four ballot initiatives offered to voters in Massachusetts this year, Republicans are overwhelmingly calling for a no vote on all four initiatives while their Democratic counterparts are pushing for the opposite. Break down :
With a split of 5 percentage points, Question 3 stands out as the closest electoral competition to the Center for Public Opinion’s 2022 midterm poll. It also reflects a noticeable age gap in which voters between the ages of 18 and 44 are in favor (51% vs. 37%) and those over 45 are evenly split at 41%. Watching it closely, Cluverius said, given that 15% of respondents reported indecision and the amount of money backing the no side, question 3 is the only four-vote question with a good chance of winning. fail.
“A classic David versus Goliath ballot initiative,” said political science professor Joshua Dyck, director of the Center for Public Opinion. “Question 3 pits a coalition of local business owners against corporate giant Total Wine. It’s a very familiar setup where big money can often raise doubts and encourage No votes in the final days of an initiative campaign It will take a substantial campaign effort from the Yes side to stem the tide.
Regarding the final statewide ballot initiative, Cluverius said, “Opponents of driver’s licenses for people living illegally in the country of Massachusetts have one person to blame for the strong numbers of Yes to the question 4: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The relocation of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard has made Massachusetts voters more sympathetic to those seeking a better life in America and wary of outside interference in the state.
New Hampshire: Democrats in Washington, Republicans in Concord
By splitting their ballots, the data suggests New Hampshire voters will likely return a Democrat to the US Senate while re-electing a Republican to lead the state as governor.
While less than half of New Hampshire voters approve of President Joe Biden’s performance and nearly seven in 10 characterize the country as heading in the wrong direction, Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan holds a 51% to 41% lead over her Republican opponent, retired Army Brick. General Don Bolduc.
Education levels among voters separate the candidates. Among respondents with a college degree, Hassan leads 63% to 32% while Bolduc leads 48% to 42% among respondents without a college degree.
Incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu leads his opponent, Democratic Senator Tom Sherman, 51% to 35%. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of Granite State respondents approve of Sununu’s performance. However, in what may be Sherman’s biggest hurdle, with two weeks to go, more than a quarter (26%) of respondents had no opinion of him while 16% said they had never heard of him.
“These are tough numbers for a challenger in the final weeks of an election,” Cluverius said.
With nearly identical prospects and a resounding agreement, the country is on the wrong track, with political unrest, current events and cultural phenomena shaping the outlook of neighboring voters in Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
“Voters from all political walks of life share a lack of optimism,” Cluverius said.
If history were to repeat itself and Joseph Biden and Donald Trump found themselves in a rematch in 2024, voters in New Hampshire (49%) and Massachusetts (58%) would return the Democrat to power.
The winter of 2022-2023 could turn out to be a season of economic concerns and inflation fears for residents of Massachusetts and New Hampshire. But distribution is more difficult for low-income people. As home heating prices double and triple across the world, residents of both states earning less than $50,000 a year say they expect it to be harder to afford regular monthly payments like such as housing, utilities, food, medical care or car payments over the next six years. month.
At 77% and 78%, respectively, voters in New Hampshire and Massachusetts support a woman’s right to an abortion in every state in the nation. This support transcends political parties:
- 59% New Hampshire Republicans, 98% Democrats, and 71% Independents
- 52% Massachusetts Republicans, 94% Democrats, and 69% Independents
To read the full questionnaire, key findings and access the detailed methodology disclosure, please visit uml.edu/polls. The polls were conducted among 1,000 likely voters in Massachusetts and 600 voters in New Hampshire between October 14 and 25. Massachusetts data has a +/- 4.1 percentage point margin of error and New Hampshire data has a +/- 5.1 percentage point margin of error.
About the Center for Public Opinion
The Center for Public Opinion presents events and polls on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning, and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.
UMass Lowell is a national research university located on a high-energy campus at the heart of a global community. The university offers its students bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral degrees in business, education, engineering, fine arts, health, humanities, sciences and social sciences. UMass Lowell offers high-quality educational programs, vigorous hands-on learning, and personal attention from top faculty and staff, preparing all graduates to be leaders in their communities and around the world. www.uml.edu