TV advertising the silent movies of the 21st Century?

January 27th, 2005

Simon Walden provides some interesting statistics on TV advertising, in his post
If there's no ads they'll make you pay another way
Quoting an article from the LA Times

studies have shown that at least 70% of today's estimated 6.5 million DVRs are routinely used for what's known as commercial avoidance.
With DVR use expected to grow tenfold over the next five years, the devices are threatening to bring the $60-billion-a-year TV advertising business to its knees.
By 2010, half the U.S. households with TV sets are expected also to have digital recorders, according to a recent Smith Barney report. The tipping point could come as early as 2007, the report said, when the television industry may lose as much as $7.6 billion or about 10% of its annual ad revenue as advertisers seek other ways of reaching consumers.

Walden points out that research with consumers that they would be open to and would prefer paying on demand for most content, a similar model to Apple iTunes he suggests.
These findings are all debatable, and TV advertising will never disappear completely. but I think that its worth thinking about.
Hypothetically ask yourself, if I was going to try to persuade people to change their minds about my product or service how would I do it, if I did not do it by TV spot advertising?
How does one deploy the creative thinking that has been remorselessly poured into TV advertising over the last 30 years? What combination of skills do we need from communication specialist companies. Will advertising agencies exist in 5 years time in the form they are today?
How will the model of broadcast change – and where will there future revenues come from?

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